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market analysis
【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: TRY Bear Trend
Risk Warning:
The purpose of information release is to warn investors of risks and does not constitute any investment advice. The relevant data and information are from third parties and are for reference only. Investors are requested to verify before use and assume all risks.
Hello everyone, today XM Forex will bring you "【XM Decision Analysis】--USD/TRY Forecast: TRY Bear Trend". I hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
- In its latest trading sessions, the USD/TRY pair recorded a price of $0.0258, after starting the week at $0.0371 and closing at the same price level of $0.0258.
- This reflects a sharp decrease of -30.47%.
- The price fluctuated during the week between a low of $0.0255 and a high of $0.0391, indicating strong selling pressure on the Turkish Lira.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
The pair is moving within a clear downward trend in the short and medium term. The dollar has successfully achieved sharp gains against the Turkish Lira, leading to the breaking of successive support levels, with the price stabilizing at historically low levels. Technical indicators suggest continued negative pressure, as the price is below the 50-day and 100-day moving averages, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable in the oversold zone below the 30 level. This reflects strong selling momentum, but it may also signal the potential for a temporary technical rebound.
If the decline continues, the pair may head to test the next support level near $0.0250, which represents a potential low for this week. In the event of a corrective rebound, it may face resistance at $0.0275 and then $0.0300. It is worth noting that the continuing economic pressures on the Turkish Lira, high inflation, and weak monetary policy all weaken the likelihood of any real recovery in the near term.
TRYUSD Price Expectations for the Pair During the Current Week:
The downward trend is expected to continue dominating the pair's performance this week, especially with the absence of strong economic catalysts in favour of the Turkish Lira. Technically, the pair is likely to move between the near support at $0.0250 and the resistance at $0.0275, with the possibility of short-term rebounds due to oversold conditions. However, these rebounds may be limited and unsustainable without a change in economic fundamentals.
USD/TRY Trading Signals:
Bearish Entry Points (Likely Scenario):
- Sell on any rebound towards the $0.0270 - $0.0280 levels.
- Targets: $0.0255 then $0.0250.
- Stop Loss: A bullish breakout above $0.0290 with a daily close.
Bullish Entry Points (Alternative Scenario):
- Speculative buying only if strong technical reversal signals appear from the $0.0250 support.
- Target: $0.0275 then $0.0300.
- Stop Loss: A break below $0.0248.
Advice for USD/TRY Traders:
Despite the pair reaching historically low levels, attempting to buy without strong technical confirmations is a significant risk. It is recommended to follow the downward trend and monitor support and resistance areas closely, while adopting a clear stop-loss in all cases.
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